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SPDN: An Inexpensive Way To Profit When The S&P 500 Falls

Summary
SPDN is not the largest or oldest way to short the S&P 500, but it’s a solid choice.
This ETF uses a variety of financial instruments to target a return opposite that of the S&P 500 Index.
SPDN’s 0.49% Expense Ratio is nearly half that of the larger, longer-tenured -1x Inverse S&P 500 ETF.
Details aside, the potential continuation of the equity bear market makes single-inverse ETFs an investment segment investor should be familiar with.
We rate SPDN a Strong Buy because we believe the risks of a continued bear market greatly outweigh the possibility of a quick return to a bull market.
Put a gear stick into R position, (Reverse).
Birdlkportfolio

By Rob Isbitts

Summary
The S&P 500 is in a bear market, and we don’t see a quick-fix. Many investors assume the only way to navigate a potentially long-term bear market is to hide in cash, day-trade or “just hang in there” while the bear takes their retirement nest egg.

The Direxion Daily S&P 500® Bear 1X ETF (NYSEARCA:SPDN) is one of a class of single-inverse ETFs that allow investors to profit from down moves in the stock market.

SPDN is an unleveraged, liquid, low-cost way to either try to hedge an equity portfolio, profit from a decline in the S&P 500, or both. We rate it a Strong Buy, given our concern about the intermediate-term outlook for the global equity market.

Strategy
SPDN keeps it simple. If the S&P 500 goes up by X%, it should go down by X%. The opposite is also expected.

Proprietary ETF Grades
Offense/Defense: Defense

Segment: Inverse Equity

Sub-Segment: Inverse S&P 500

Correlation (vs. S&P 500): Very High (inverse)

Expected Volatility (vs. S&P 500): Similar (but opposite)

Holding Analysis
SPDN does not rely on shorting individual stocks in the S&P 500. Instead, the managers typically use a combination of futures, swaps and other derivative instruments to create a portfolio that consistently aims to deliver the opposite of what the S&P 500 does.

Strengths
SPDN is a fairly “no-frills” way to do what many investors probably wished they could do during the first 9 months of 2022 and in past bear markets: find something that goes up when the “market” goes down. After all, bonds are not the answer they used to be, commodities like gold have, shall we say, lost their luster. And moving to cash creates the issue of making two correct timing decisions, when to get in and when to get out. SPDN and its single-inverse ETF brethren offer a liquid tool to use in a variety of ways, depending on what a particular investor wants to achieve.

Weaknesses
The weakness of any inverse ETF is that it does the opposite of what the market does, when the market goes up. So, even in bear markets when the broader market trend is down, sharp bear market rallies (or any rallies for that matter) in the S&P 500 will cause SPDN to drop as much as the market goes up.

Opportunities
While inverse ETFs have a reputation in some circles as nothing more than day-trading vehicles, our own experience with them is, pardon the pun, exactly the opposite! We encourage investors to try to better-understand single inverse ETFs like SPDN. While traders tend to gravitate to leveraged inverse ETFs (which actually are day-trading tools), we believe that in an extended bear market, SPDN and its ilk could be a game-saver for many portfolios.

Threats
SPDN and most other single inverse ETFs are vulnerable to a sustained rise in the price of the index it aims to deliver the inverse of. But that threat of loss in a rising market means that when an investor considers SPDN, they should also have a game plan for how and when they will deploy this unique portfolio weapon.

Proprietary Technical Ratings
Short-Term Rating (next 3 months): Strong Buy

Long-Term Rating (next 12 months): Buy

Conclusions
ETF Quality Opinion
SPDN does what it aims to do, and has done so for over 6 years now. For a while, it was largely-ignored, given the existence of a similar ETF that has been around much longer. But the more tenured SPDN has become, the more attractive it looks as an alternative.

ETF Investment Opinion

SPDN is rated Strong Buy because the S&P 500 continues to look as vulnerable to further decline. And, while the market bottomed in mid-June, rallied, then waffled since that time, our proprietary macro market indicators all point to much greater risk of a major decline from this level than a fast return to bull market glory. Thus, SPDN is at best a way to exploit and attack the bear, and at worst a hedge on an otherwise equity-laden portfolio.

10 Simple Steps to Online Business Success

So your online business sucks and you’re feeling like a failure… Bet you thought running an online business was easy didn’t you. I bet you said to yourself:”I have this fantastic idea to start an online business and sell what I love and am passionate about and thousands of people are going to come running to buy my products now that I’ve got a website.”That’s it, you’re done and there’s no looking back now! You’ve got your online business and you’re going to make tons of money now aren’t you?! Or, are you?The reality of the situation is, many people start a business online everyday, yet almost all of them fail to execute a few simple steps that would inevitably lead them to success. Nearly all of us at one point in our entrepreneurial career has thought that we had a great idea that everyone wants or needs and they were just as excited about it as you are. The fact of the matter is you are an expert within your particular niche and that is what you are passionate about. But how are you going to share that passion, let alone your products and services with your target audience? Here are a few simple steps you can follow to ensure you succeed with your internet business.Step 1 – Know Your Target AudienceThe idea of knowing your audience goes deeper than identifying who they are, where they hang out and what they want however. Take the time to get to know your target audience. Ask them questions and learn what it is they seek from you. Online surveys are a great way to hear directly from your target audience. Use the free service from SurveyMonkey to create an online survey and ask your target audience as well as your email list subscribers to answer the questions. Their free plan allows you to create 10 question surveys and is very useful.Step 2 – Plan Your BusinessThis is a topic I cover in greater detail in my free 15 day training course. No online business can succeed without a plan. You must create a plan of action to implement for your online business before you can ever hope to succeed. This applies whether your a brick and mortar real world business or strictly operating online, having a plan of action greatly increases your chances of success!Step 3 – Follow the LeaderIdentify who the industry leaders are within your target market or niche and follow them closely. Learn from them to identify what led to their success. Take from them what works best for you and apply the lessons you’ve learned to create a more specific and personalized method to success for your online business.Step 4 – Devise a Marketing StrategyThis is an area where many online business owners fail. If you want your online business to succeed, you need to learn how to market your business. Having a well thought out marketing plan is a major key to your online business success.Step 5 – Pay Attention to OpportunityOpportunity exists everywhere, you just need to learn how to identify it. This is done through practice, practice, practice. The best way to learn how to identify opportunity is to learn how to be a better conversationalist. Opportunities present themselves in the most unlikely of situations usually. Learning to simply have conversations with others almost always leads to some form of opportunity presenting itself to you. Learn this art and your online business will go far!Step 6 – Create Actionable GoalsGoal setting is a key requirement for you to succeed at anything you do. Set actionable goals you need to achieve in order to attain success within your online business. Each goal is a small step toward the success you seek. Make sure to include dates for when you intend to achieve your goals. Including dates gives you something more to shoot for. Also, be specific about what you intend to achieve. For example, to have a goal of “make more money” is not an actionable goal. Instead, apply an amount and date to make the goal more realistic and achievable such as “I intend to make $10,000 a month by December 31st, 2010″.Step 7 – Work Your Business EverydayThis one is a little tricky. When I say to “work your business everyday” I mean within reason. You need to find a balance, especially if you are just starting out. You must work your online business everyday, even if it is for only 30 minutes a day. Each small step you take toward your goals is a part of a larger effort to achieve success.Step 8 – Don’t be a Pencil PusherMan if I had a penny for every time I’ve seen this one! Don’t get stuck in the preparation phase of your online business. To many times I’ve seen aspiring online business owners continue to prepare or organize their online business. You’ll never be 100% prepared so quit straightening your pencils and organizing your desk. You know what your action items are, so take action and just do the things that are going to make you money!Step 9 – Create Content that MattersMake sure to provide your target audience with quality content that meets their expectations and provides value. Your target audience is looking for value and will follow you fiercely if you provide it. Answer their questions and provide for their needs and you’ll find they will help you succeed.Step 10 – Build a Relationship ListNo, no, I don’t mean you create an online dating service… You should be actively building an email subscriber list and communicating with them on a regular basis. Doing so allows you to build a relationship with your subscribers which leads to customer loyalty as well as repeat buyers. An email list is by far the single most important requirement necessary for any online business to succeed.Well I’ve certainly given you a lot to think about, so stop sucking and get’er done!!!To Your Success!
Sean Smith

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Shoe Repairs And Several Other Things When I Was 7

Shoe Repairs And Several Other Things When I Was 7
My Dad repaired most of our shoes believe it or not, I can hardly believe it myself now. With 7 pairs of shoes always needing repairs I think he was quite clever to learn how to “Keep us in shoe Leather” to coin a phrase!

He bought several different sizes of cast iron cobbler’s “lasts”. Last, the old English “Laest” meaning footprint. Lasts were holding devices shaped like a human foot. I have no idea where he would have bought the shoe leather. Only that it was a beautiful creamy, shiny colour and the smell was lovely.

But I do remember our shoes turned upside down on and fitted into these lasts, my Dad cutting the leather around the shape of the shoe, and then hammering nails, into the leather shape. Sometimes we’d feel one or 2 of those nails poking through the insides of our shoes, but our dad always fixed it.

Hiking and Swimming Galas
Dad was a very outdoorsy type, unlike my mother, who was probably too busy indoors. She also enjoyed the peace and quiet when he took us off for the day!

Anyway, he often took us hiking in the mountains where we’d have a picnic of sandwiches and flasks of tea. And more often than not we went by steam train.

We loved poking our heads out of the window until our eyes hurt like mad from a blast of soot blowing back from the engine. But sore, bloodshot eyes never dampened our enthusiasm.

Dad was an avid swimmer and water polo player, and he used to take us to swimming galas, as they were called back then. He often took part in these galas. And again we always travelled by steam train.

Rowing Over To Ireland’s Eye
That’s what we did back then, we had to go by rowboat, the only way to get to Ireland’s eye, which is 15 minutes from mainland Howth. From there we could see Malahide, Lambay Island and Howth Head of course. These days you can take a Round Trip Cruise on a small cruise ship!

But we thoroughly enjoyed rowing and once there we couldn’t wait to climb the rocks, and have a swim. We picnicked and watched the friendly seals doing their thing and showing off.

Not to mention all kinds of birdlife including the Puffin.The Martello Tower was also interesting but a bit dangerous to attempt entering. I’m getting lost in the past as I write, and have to drag myself back to the present.

Fun Outings with The camera Club
Dad was also a very keen amateur photographer, and was a member of a camera Club. There were many Sunday photography outings and along with us came other kids of the members of the club.

And we always had great fun while the adults busied themselves taking photos of everything and anything, it seemed to us. Dad was so serious about his photography that he set up a dark room where he developed and printed his photographs.

All black and white at the time. He and his camera club entered many of their favourites in exhibitions throughout Europe. I’m quite proud to say that many cups and medals were won by Dad. They have been shared amongst all his grandchildren which I find quite special.

He liked taking portraits of us kids too, mostly when we were in a state of untidiness, usually during play. Dad always preferred the natural look of messy hair and clothes in the photos of his children.

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